Banxico Inflación 2024: Análisis y Predicciones para el Futuro Económico de México

Banxico's inflation forecast for 2024 is a crucial indicator for Mexico's economic future. According to Banxico's latest report, the inflation rate is expected to reach 3.5% by the end of 2024.

Mexico's economy is heavily reliant on oil exports, which makes inflation a significant concern. The country's inflation rate has been steadily increasing over the past few years, with a peak of 8.3% in 2022.

Banxico has implemented monetary policies to control inflation, including increasing interest rates to discourage borrowing and spending. This move aims to reduce the demand for goods and services, thereby decreasing prices.

The impact of these policies on the economy remains to be seen, but experts predict a moderate growth rate of 2.5% for 2024.

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Banxico has hinted that it may keep the interest rate at 11.25% for a while, with some experts predicting a cut as early as March 2024.

The interest rate is expected to drop to 10.25% by 2023, according to Gabriela Siller.

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A restrictive monetary policy is in place due to low inflation, which has made the interest rate less effective.

The real interest rate ex ante is still restrictive, despite the interest rate not being increased.

Banxico will have to act cautiously in its monetary policy decisions.

The interest rate has been a medicine that has entered the system and needs time to take effect.

In Mexico, the interest rate does not affect consumption but does impact investment.

Investment growth is related to government infrastructure projects, not private sector investment.

A 25 to 50 point basic interest rate cut is being considered for the February 2025 meeting.

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Mexico's economic growth is expected to slow down in 2025, with analysts predicting a growth rate of only 1.12%. This is lower than the 1.6% growth rate expected for this year.

The country's inflation rate is also projected to decrease, closing 2025 at 3.8%, down from the 4.37% expected at the end of 2024.

A policy of fiscal restraint and uncertainty in the private sector are contributing to this slowdown. However, this may ultimately help Banxico meet its inflation target in the medium term, allowing for a more neutral monetary policy in the future.

Here are some key economic projections for Mexico:

These projections suggest that Mexico's economy is on a path of gradual stabilization, with a focus on controlling inflation and maintaining a stable exchange rate.

The inflation rate in Mexico is expected to decrease, with the INPC (Índice Nacional de Precios al Consumidor) projected to be around 3.9% by the end of 2024.

Gabriela Siller, director of analysis at Banco Base, notes that the desaceleration of inflation in 2023 was significant, with food and beverages decreasing from 14.14% in 2022 to 6.25% in 2023.

Mercancías no alimenticias also saw a notable decrease, going from 7.68% to 3.28% between 2022 and 2023.

The inflation rate is expected to gradually decrease to the range of 2% to 4% as set by the bank central, but this will not be a linear process.

The first quincena of January will be a key indicator of inflation, as it's the time when tax adjustments and price changes occur.

Roldán Tapia believes that the path to the 3% inflation target will not be straightforward.

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The recent decision by Banxico to reduce the interest rate by 25 points base has left many investors wondering about the impact on their Cetes investments. Banxico expects to make more adjustments to the interest rate, with analysts predicting two more cuts this year, taking the rate to 10.50% by the end of 2024.

This reduction in interest rates is expected to have a positive impact on the economy, with a lower cost of debt for the government and businesses. It also encourages consumption and investment, which can lead to economic growth.

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Banxico's decision to adjust the interest rate is based on its assessment of the inflationary environment, which it expects to continue to allow for additional adjustments. The bank's governor has stated that the balance of risks for economic activity remains skewed to the downside, indicating a potential for further rate cuts.

Analysts at Intercam have adjusted their forecast for the end of the year to 10%, while those at Ve Por Más expect a range of 10 to 10.25%. These predictions are based on the assumption that the inflation rate will continue to decline, reaching 4.3% by the end of 2024.

The interest rate reduction is also expected to have a positive impact on Cetes investments, making them more attractive to investors. However, it's essential to note that the persistence of underlying inflation, depreciation of the currency, and other economic factors can impact the value of these investments.

The recent reduction in the interest rate has been a response to the improving inflationary environment, which has seen a decline in the general inflation rate from 5.57% in July to 4.66% in the first half of September.

Analysts predict two interest rate cuts this year, with the first one expected in August and the second in December, which would bring the rate to 10.50%.

Jessica Roldán, economist at Finamex Casa de Bolsa, thinks Banxico may cut the rate more than twice, as the tone of the bank's announcement suggests they'll take any opportunity to reduce the rate.

Ricardo Aguilar, economist at Grupo Financiero Invex, also expects two rate cuts, but notes that the first cut may not happen in August, depending on inflation's trajectory.

Alejandro Saldaña, economist at Grupo Financiero Ve Por Más, believes the margin of maneuver for Banxico will be limited in the coming months due to factors like depreciation and the Fed's recent forecast of fewer rate cuts.

The analysts' predictions suggest that the cycle of rate cuts will extend into next year, with some expecting the rate to reach 10-11% by the end of 2024.

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Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base, notes that a lower interest rate is a reduction in the cost of debt for the government and companies, which can stimulate consumption and investment.

Alberto Ramos, economist at Goldman Sachs, says the bank's future guidance does not indicate any acceleration of rate cuts in the November meeting.