Trump Says Recession is Near What You Need to Know

Trump's warnings of a recession have been making headlines, but what does it mean for you?

A recession is typically defined as a decline in economic activity for two or more consecutive quarters.

The last recession in the US occurred in 2007-2009, caused by a housing market bubble bursting.

Experts are still debating whether a recession is imminent, but some indicators suggest a slowdown is possible.

The yield curve, which shows the difference in interest rates between short-term and long-term bonds, has inverted, a sign of potential recession.

Trump acknowledged that his trade policies could lead to a recession, but downplayed its significance, saying "We're gonna do fantastically."

The U.S. economy shrank by 0.3% last month, a decline economists had not expected.

Trump suggested that a recession would be a short-term issue, saying "Is it ok in the short term to have a recession?" he was asked, to which he replied "Uh, yeah".

Many businesses are hesitant to make big investments until there's clarity on the tariff front, which Trump's trade policies have created.

Trump believes his trade policies will ultimately lead to a "greatest windfall ever happened", according to him.

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President Trump is determined to protect American interests, as seen in his stance on tariffs: "We're not going to let people take advantage" of the US.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is confident in the US economy, stating there's "no chance" of a recession in America.

President Trump's tariffs are aimed at preventing others from taking advantage of the US, a clear indication of his focus on economic protection.

According to Commerce Secretary Lutnick, he would "never bet on" a recession happening in the US.

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A recession is a broad-based, persistent decline in economic activity, or more commonly two straight quarters of economic contraction.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is responsible for determining whether or not the economy has entered a recession. They evaluate six key indicators to make this decision.

Real personal income is one of the key indicators the NBER looks at to determine if a recession has started.

Non-farm payroll employment, employment as measured by the household survey, personal consumption, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production are the other five key indicators the NBER considers.

Policy uncertainty and waning consumer and investor confidence can make it feel like the economy is in a serious slump, but these factors alone do not indicate that a recession has started.

The U.S. economy shrank by 0.3% last month after economists expected it to grow by 0.4%, which is a sign that the economy may be heading towards a recession.

President Trump acknowledged that his trade policies could lead to a recession, but said ultimately, “We’re gonna do fantastically.”

Leading Wall Street figures are expressing concern that Mr. Trump's tariff agenda could lead to a reduction in economic growth.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon highlighted the "many uncertainties surrounding the new tariff policy", including potential retaliatory actions by foreign nations, that could put a damper on investment and growth.

Bill Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square, described the tariffs as "launching economic nuclear war on every country in the world."

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed the notion that tariffs would cause a U.S. recession, saying "I see no reason that we have to price in a recession."

Despite the differing opinions, it's clear that the market is taking a close look at the potential impact of tariffs on the economy.

Here's a summary of the market reaction to Trump's tariff agenda: