Intention Economy: Where Customers Drive Value Creation

The Intention Economy is a game-changer for customers and businesses alike. In this economy, customers drive value creation by making their intentions and preferences known to businesses.

This shift in power is made possible by technologies like blockchain, artificial intelligence, and the internet of things, which enable seamless communication between customers and businesses.

With the Intention Economy, customers are no longer passive recipients of products and services, but active participants in the value creation process.

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The Intention Economy is a concept that grows around buyers, not sellers. It leverages the fact that buyers are the first source of money and come ready-made.

Doc Searls coined the term, describing the current condition as a series of silos where buyers have limited options and can only move from one silo to another. Even successful businesses like Google still have a seller-oriented point of view.

In an intention economy, a site like Priceline.com might serve as an intermediary, coordinating new flight dates and times that correspond to a buyer's intentions. This would allow companies to respond to a customer's precise needs.

Some examples of companies that are moving towards an intention economy include Tesla's Autobidder software, which lets users determine when to sell or buy at chosen price points. This is an example of the concept of intention economy in action.

The intention economy is not just about buying and selling, but also about creating personalized experiences for customers. For instance, a computer manufacturer can gear up to assemble a computer just for one person, to their specifications.

Here are some characteristics of the intention economy:

The intention economy is not just a concept, but a reality that is already being implemented by companies like Tesla and Priceline.com.

Intention economy sites aim to provide a platform for customers to express their needs and intentions, and for vendors to compete for their business. However, many of these sites have limitations, such as focusing on only one product or category, or working too closely with a limited set of suppliers.

Some notable examples of intention economy sites include Igglo, which let potential buyers bid on houses that aren't on the market, and Zillow, which allows home owners to name their "Make Me Move" price before putting their house on the market. These sites demonstrate the potential for intention economy to disrupt traditional markets and provide new opportunities for customers and vendors alike.

In the world of intention economy, examples are key to understanding how it works. Searls gives a great example of how a car rental customer can request a 4-wheel drive SUV for a trip to Park City, mentioning their loyalty program memberships and preferences for no upfront gas payments or insurance.

Priceline, a well-known travel booking website, was initially an example of an intention economy site, but it's no longer the case. They let customers name their own price, but it was actually just a way to match their bid with pre-set minimum prices from airlines, hotels, and rental car companies.

Igglo was another example of an intention economy site, where potential buyers could bid on houses that weren't on the market. Zillow also offers a similar feature, allowing home owners to name their "Make Me Move" price before putting their house on the market.

Eventful and SellaBand were examples of sites that allowed users to collectively persuade performers to come to their town and sponsor a band, respectively. Unfortunately, both sites are no longer active.

Angi, formerly known as Angie's List, is a US-based online service that allows people to openly put out projects for bid to local contractors. It was founded in 1995 and is still active today.

Here are some examples of intention economy sites listed by Trendwatching in 2007:

ProjectVRM is a great example of how technology can empower customers. It equips them with tools for independence from vendors and better engagement with vendors.

ProjectVRM seeks to improve markets by equipping customers with tools for both independence from vendors and better engagement with vendors. This is a game-changer for customers who want to have more control over their interactions with vendors.

ProjectVRM's focus on independence from vendors means that customers can make choices without being locked into a particular vendor's ecosystem.

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The intention economy is a concept where customers can express their intentions to vendors, and the vendors compete to fulfill those intentions. This concept is already being explored through various projects and platforms.

Trendwatching.com highlights two major problems with existing intention economy sites: they often focus on only one product or category, and they work too closely with a limited set of suppliers. As a result, sites that claim to operate as intention economy sites may not actually be doing so.

For example, Priceline, which allowed customers to name their own price for flights, hotels, and car rentals, ended its Name Your Own Price model for these services in 2016, 2018, and 2020, respectively.

Some existing intention economy sites include:

However, some of these sites have either stopped operating or are no longer functioning as intended.

The concept of the intention economy also raises concerns about the potential for AI agents to manipulate users into making decisions and then selling their plans to the highest bidder. AI ethicists from the University of Cambridge warn that this could lead to a "gold rush" for those who target, steer, and sell human intentions.

This could potentially impact human aspirations, including free and fair elections, a free press, and fair market competition.

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Some experts are warning that the intention economy could test democratic norms by subjecting users to clandestine modes of subverting, redirecting, and intervening on commodified signals of intent.

Economists like Searls are concerned about the implications of the intention economy on economic systems and e-commerce.

Experts from the University of Cambridge warn that conversational AI tools could lead to a new "intention economy" that covertly influences users' decision making.

Unless regulated, the intention economy will treat your motivations as the new currency, according to co-author Jonnie Penn.

Researchers at the University of Cambridge argue that the intention economy could lead to social manipulation on an industrial scale, and that public awareness is key to ensuring we don't go down the wrong path.

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Some people are concerned that the intention economy will test democratic norms by subjecting users to clandestine modes of subverting, redirecting, and intervening on commodified signals of intent.

The emergence of artificial general intelligence and its increasing adoption in consumer information spaces has sparked these concerns.

The intention economy has been linked to economic systems and e-commerce.

While some see the intention economy as a positive development, others are more pessimistic about its potential impact.

Researchers at the University of Cambridge have warned about the emergence of a new commercial frontier called the "intention economy", where conversational AI tools may covertly influence users' decision making.

This new economy could see AI combine knowledge of our online habits with a growing ability to know the user and anticipate his or her desires, building "new levels of trust and understanding".

The Cambridge researchers argue that if left unchecked, this could allow for "social manipulation on an industrial scale".

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Unless regulated, the intention economy will treat your motivations as the new currency, according to co-author Jonnie Penn.

The new AI will rely on so-called Large Language Models – or LLMs – to target a user's cadence, politics, vocabulary, age, gender, online history, and even preferences for flattery and ingratiation.

Public awareness of the issue is "the key to ensuring we don't go down the wrong path", according to Penn.

Here are some potential consequences of the intention economy: