Early warning services have come a long way in recent years, thanks to advancements in technology and data sharing. This has enabled the creation of multi-hazard systems that can detect and alert people to a wide range of potential threats, from natural disasters to industrial accidents.
The future of early warning systems looks bright, with many experts predicting a significant increase in their use and effectiveness. In fact, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) estimates that by 2025, 75% of the world's population will have access to mobile devices that can receive emergency alerts.
The development of these systems is not just about technology, but also about collaboration and data sharing. For example, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort between governments, universities, and private companies to develop a global earthquake risk model that can be used to inform early warning systems.
As a result of these efforts, early warning systems are becoming more sophisticated and widespread, with many countries now using them to protect their citizens and infrastructure.
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Early Warning Services
Regional drought early warning systems, or DEWS, are crucial for helping communities prepare for and cope with drought. These systems have been developed throughout the United States by NIDIS, which coordinates networks of researchers, resource managers, policymakers, and other stakeholders.
Each DEWS focuses on improving early warning capacity and resilience to drought in its respective region. They examine the role of extreme weather events and climate variability in drought, and encourage innovation by integrating new, locally relevant drought information.
Regional DEWS activities are divided into five key areas: observation and monitoring, prediction and forecasting, planning and preparedness, communication and outreach, and interdisciplinary research and applications. These areas help decision-makers and citizens approach drought monitoring and forecasting in a systematic way.
The table below shows ongoing activities related to drought early warning across the United States. These activities fall into one or more of the five key areas of drought early warning systems.
In some cases, DEWS have been instrumental in responding to rapid-onset drought events, such as the 2017 drought in northeast Montana, the Dakotas, and the Canadian Prairies.
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Climate Adaptation
At COP27, the United Nations Secretary General launched the Early Warning for All initiative, aiming to provide access to early warning systems for all by 2027.
The French Government hosted a side event, giving a platform for high-level representatives from vulnerable countries, donor countries, and the private sector to discuss the initiative's priority needs and possible solutions.
The ClimSA Programme has been engaging with the private sector to develop products and services in the climate services value chain, including early warning systems.
The Programme's Team Leader, Dr. Nsadisa Faka, discussed the role of Regional Climate Centres in implementing the W4ALL initiative at the regional level with representatives from Météo France Internationale and the Caribbean Meteorological Organisation.
ClimSA is supporting the Organisation of African, Caribbean and Pacific States' Regional Climate Centres in setting up the necessary infrastructure for early warning systems.
Dr. Nsadisa Faka shared details on the involvement of Regional Climate Centres in the process of early warning systems with the speakers at the COP27 side event.
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System and Data
The Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) relies heavily on four key pillars to provide effective early warning services.
Systematically collecting data and undertaking risk assessments on hazards and vulnerabilities is crucial to understanding potential disaster risks. The MHEWS pillar on Disaster Risk Knowledge aims to achieve this through systematic data collection and risk assessments.
The MHEWS pillar on Observations and Forecasting focuses on developing hazard monitoring and early warning services. This involves gathering data on potential hazards and using it to predict when and where they might occur.
The four key MHEWS pillars work together to provide comprehensive early warning services. Here are the four pillars:
- Disaster risk knowledge
- Observations and Forecasting
- Preparedness and response
- Dissemination and communication
4 Key Multi-Hazard System Pillars
The Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) is a powerful tool that helps people prepare for and respond to hazardous weather or climate events.
The MHEWS has four key pillars that work together to minimize impacts.
These pillars are: disaster risk knowledge, observations and forecasting, preparedness and response, and dissemination and communication.
The estimated new targeted investments of USD 3.1 Billion over the five years will be used to advance these four key pillars.
Here's a breakdown of each pillar:
Systematic Review of Pre-Hospital News
A systematic review of NEWS in pre-hospital settings found that patients with very low scores (zero) were very unlikely to get worse.
Those with very high scores (seven or more) were very likely to deteriorate.
Scores in the middle were less useful for identifying patients at risk of deteriorating.
No studies looked at whether patient outcomes are different in out-of-hospital settings using an early warning score, compared to those not using one.
Further studies are needed to address this question and to evaluate EWS in other out-of-hospital settings.
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Public Private Partnership
Public Private Partnership plays a key role in achieving the objective set by the UNSG.
Public-Private Partnerships are needed to strengthen all elements of Early Warning – Early Action, a proven tool to save lives and livelihoods and to reduce economic losses.
The private sector has a crucial role to play on the pathway towards achieving the objective set by the UNSG.
Multilateral initiatives such as CREWS will be built upon by solutions proposed by the private sector.
According to Mami Mizutori, UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction, Public-Private Partnerships are essential for Early Warning systems.
The French Government hosted a side event at COP27, giving high-level representatives from vulnerable countries, donor countries, and the private sector a platform to address priority needs and possible solutions related to the Early Warnings for All initiative.
The United Nations Secretary General launched the Early Warning for All initiative at COP27, aiming to provide access to Early Warning Systems against extreme and dangerous weather conditions by 2027.
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Research and Evaluation
The West of England AHSN's initiative to increase the use of NEWS has been successful, with high scores being reasonably uncommon in most out-of-hospital settings.
A large proportion of patients had a NEWS score between zero and two, with 80 per cent in the emergency department, 72 per cent in the community, and 67 per cent of ambulance patients.
Only a small number of patients had a score of five or above, which is the trigger for hospital referral, with 8 per cent in the emergency department, 12 per cent in the community, and 18 per cent of ambulance patients.
Referrals by a GP had higher scores on average, with 46 per cent of scores between zero and two, and 30 per cent of five or above.
The use of NEWS was reasonably stable in the emergency department, ambulance, and community populations, and still increasing for GP referrals by April 2016.
Higher NEWS values were associated with shorter times from referral to arrival at hospital for patients taken in by ambulance, and decreased times from arrival to medical review.
However, higher NEWS values were also associated with longer hospital stays, more intensive care unit admissions, increased infection rate, and a higher death rate.
On average, for patients referred without a NEWS value, most clinical outcomes were comparable with patients with a score of 3 to 4, but the ambulance journey time and time to medical review were comparable with patients with a lower score of 0 to 2.
A study demonstrated that higher NEWS values calculated at GP referral into hospital are associated with a faster medical review.
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