
Amazon's intrinsic value can be a complex and multifaceted concept, but it's essential to break it down to understand its financial performance. Amazon's net sales have consistently increased over the years, reaching $478 billion in 2020.
One key driver of Amazon's growth is its ability to innovate and expand into new markets. The company has successfully ventured into areas such as cloud computing, advertising, and artificial intelligence. This diversification has helped Amazon stay ahead of the competition and maintain its market share.
Amazon's financial performance is also influenced by its operating expenses, which have been increasing rapidly due to investments in new businesses and technologies. In 2020, Amazon's operating expenses reached $343 billion, up from $245 billion in 2018.
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Amazon Financials
Amazon's current assets total a staggering $191.4 billion, with a significant portion of that being cash and short-term investments, at $93.2 billion.
The company's balance sheet also reveals that its non-current assets, such as property, plant, and equipment (PP&E), intangibles, and other non-current assets, total a substantial $490.8 billion.
Here's a breakdown of Amazon's current liabilities, which include accounts payable, accrued liabilities, and other current liabilities, totaling $186.9 billion.
Amazon's stock is currently overvalued by 32% compared to its estimated DCF Value of $150.16 USD, according to a DCF calculation.
Amazon Balance Sheet Breakdown
Amazon's balance sheet is a reflection of its impressive financial health. Amazon's current assets total $191.4 billion, with a significant portion of that being cash and short-term investments, which amount to $93.2 billion.
The company's current assets are comprised of cash and short-term investments, receivables, and other current assets. Receivables make up $57.4 billion of Amazon's current assets.
Amazon's non-current assets are substantial, totaling $490.8 billion. This includes property, plant, and equipment (PP&E), which amounts to $379.7 billion.
Amazon's property, plant, and equipment (PP&E) is a significant investment, totaling $379.7 billion. This includes investments in its warehouses, data centers, and other physical assets.
The company's liabilities are also substantial, with current liabilities totaling $186.9 billion. Accounts payable make up $98.3 billion of Amazon's current liabilities.
Here's a breakdown of Amazon's current liabilities:
Amazon's long-term debt is $50.7 billion, which is a relatively small portion of its total liabilities.
Financials
Amazon's financials are a reflection of the company's massive size and influence. The company's current assets total a staggering 191.4 billion USD.
Breaking down the current assets, we see that cash and short-term investments make up nearly half of that total at 93.2 billion USD. This is a significant amount of liquidity that Amazon can draw upon to fund its operations and investments.
Receivables, which are amounts owed to Amazon by its customers, come in at 57.4 billion USD. This is a substantial amount that represents the value of goods and services that Amazon has already delivered to its customers.
Amazon's non-current assets, on the other hand, are a whopping 490.8 billion USD. This includes property, plant, and equipment (PP&E) worth 379.7 billion USD, which is a testament to the company's massive investments in its infrastructure and logistics.
Here's a breakdown of Amazon's current liabilities:
These liabilities total 186.9 billion USD, which is a significant amount that Amazon needs to manage carefully to maintain its financial health.
Interestingly, Amazon's non-current liabilities, which include long-term debt and other non-current liabilities, come in at 161.5 billion USD, which is a substantial amount that the company needs to service over time.
The estimated DCF value of one Amazon stock is 150.16 USD, which is significantly lower than the current market price of 221.78 USD. This suggests that Amazon's stock is overvalued by 32%.
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Earnings Analysis
Amazon's earnings analysis reveals some interesting points. The company's revenue growth has slowed down, which may suppress overall profitability. This is partly due to persistently thin margins in the retail segment.
Amazon's operating income forecast is also a concern, as rising labor costs, supply chain disruptions, and potential unionization efforts threaten to escalate operating expenses. However, the company's cloud platform, Amazon Web Services, continues to be a high-margin profit engine.
Here are some key statistics that give us a better understanding of Amazon's earnings:
These statistics indicate that Amazon's PE Ratio is higher than the industry average, suggesting that the company is expensive based on its earnings.
Earnings Waterfall Amazon.com Inc
Amazon's earnings waterfall is a clear picture of its financial performance. The company's revenue is a whopping $670 billion USD, which is a testament to its massive scale.
Breaking down the costs, we see that Amazon's cost of revenue is a significant $337.7 billion USD, which is more than half of its revenue. This is a crucial factor in determining the company's gross profit.

Amazon's gross profit is a substantial $332.4 billion USD, which is the difference between revenue and cost of revenue. This is a clear indication of the company's ability to generate profits from its sales.
Operating expenses, however, eat into this profit, totaling $256.2 billion USD. This includes costs such as salaries, rent, and equipment expenses.
The operating income, which is the profit after subtracting operating expenses from gross profit, is $76.2 billion USD. This is a respectable figure, but it's still a significant reduction from the gross profit.
Other expenses, such as interest payments and taxes, further reduce the net income. In Amazon's case, other expenses amount to $5.6 billion USD.
The net income, which is the final profit after subtracting all expenses, is $70.6 billion USD. This is the figure that shareholders care about most, as it represents the company's overall profitability.
Here's a summary of Amazon's earnings waterfall in a table:
Earnings Ratio vs. Industry
When looking at Amazon's (AMZN) earnings ratio compared to the industry average, we can see that it's on the higher side. AMZN's Price-To-Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio) is 40.9x, which is more than the Global Multiline Retail industry average of 23x.
This means that investors are willing to pay more for each dollar of earnings from AMZN compared to other companies in the same industry. To put this into perspective, if you were to buy a dollar's worth of earnings from AMZN, you'd have to pay almost 42 dollars.
Here's a comparison of AMZN's PE Ratio to other companies in the North American Multiline Retail industry:
Note: The table is incomplete as per the provided article section facts, but it gives an idea of how AMZN's PE Ratio compares to other companies in the industry.
Earnings Ratio vs Fair Value Ratio
Amazon's price-to-earnings ratio is a whopping 40.9x, which is significantly higher than its estimated fair price-to-earnings ratio of 39x. This suggests that Amazon is trading at a premium compared to its fair value.
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The fair price-to-earnings ratio takes into account Amazon's forecast earnings growth, profit margins, and other risk factors. It's like a more accurate thermometer that helps us gauge the company's true value.
Amazon's current price-to-earnings ratio is 40.9x, while its fair price-to-earnings ratio is 39x. This discrepancy indicates that Amazon might be overvalued.
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Valuation Metrics
When evaluating Amazon's intrinsic value, we need to consider various valuation metrics to get a comprehensive understanding of its worth.
The Price-To-Earnings (PE) Ratio is a key metric used for relative valuation analysis, especially since Amazon is a profitable company. Its current PE Ratio is 40.9x, calculated by dividing its market cap of $2.42 trillion by its current earnings of $59.25 billion.
The PE Ratio is compared to the estimated Fair PE Ratio, which takes into account forecast earnings growth, profit margins, and other risk factors. In this case, Amazon's PE Ratio (40.9x) is slightly higher than its Fair PE Ratio (39x), indicating it's expensive compared to its estimated fair value.
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Another way to estimate Amazon's fair value is by using a Discounted Cash Flow model, which considers future cash flows. According to this method, Amazon's fair value is estimated to be $359.89, while its current share price is $228.68, indicating it's trading below fair value by more than 20%.
To further understand Amazon's valuation, let's compare its PE Ratio to its industry average. In the Global Multiline Retail industry, the average PE Ratio is 23x, while Amazon's PE Ratio is 40.9x, making it expensive compared to its industry peers.
Here's a summary of Amazon's key valuation metrics and ratios:
These metrics provide a comprehensive view of Amazon's valuation, helping us better understand its intrinsic value.
Stock Analysis
Amazon's stock price is currently trading at $191.10, but its estimated intrinsic value is significantly lower at $90.35 per share, indicating it's overvalued by -52.77%.
The company's DCF valuation suggests that the market is pricing in much stronger growth or efficiency improvements than assumed in the base-case cash flow projections. Amazon's retail business is known for its vast logistics network and customer obsession, while its cloud infrastructure platform, AWS, is its most profitable segment.
Amazon's estimated intrinsic value is calculated using a Discounted Cash Flow model, which takes into account the company's forecasted free cash flows and terminal growth rate. The model uses a discount rate of 9% and a terminal growth rate of 4%.
The estimated intrinsic value of $90.35 per share is well below the current market price, resulting in a significant margin of safety. In fact, Amazon is trading below its estimated fair value of $359.89, indicating it's significantly undervalued.
Here's a comparison of Amazon's current stock price and estimated fair value:
Amazon's valuation is a complex issue, but one thing is clear: its estimated intrinsic value is significantly lower than its current stock price.
Financial Modeling
Financial Modeling is a crucial step in determining a stock's intrinsic value. It helps investors understand a company's financial health and potential for growth.
The DCF Value, or Discounted Cash Flow model, is a popular method used for financial modeling. According to the estimated DCF Value of one Amazon stock, it's currently valued at 150.16 USD.
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A base case scenario already exists for Amazon.com Inc., providing a solid foundation for further analysis. This valuation model can be used to make informed decisions about buying or selling the stock.
The DCF Value Sensitivity Analysis tool allows users to assess how changes in key factors like revenue growth, margin, and discount rate affect a stock's DCF value. By visualizing various scenarios, this tool helps understand potential valuation shifts and aids in risk assessment.
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Capital Structure
Understanding Capital Structure is crucial in Financial Modeling. A company's capital structure refers to how it finances its assets and operations, typically through a combination of debt and equity.
The total present value of Amazon's capital structure is 1.6 trillion USD. This includes cash and equivalents, which account for 57.7 billion USD.
Investments also play a significant role, totaling 35.4 billion USD. This is a substantial portion of the company's capital structure, highlighting the importance of investing in assets that generate returns.
Firm value is the total value of a company's assets, which in this case is 1.7 trillion USD. This is calculated by adding cash and equivalents and investments to the present value.
Debt is a significant component of Amazon's capital structure, totaling 50.7 billion USD. This is a substantial amount, and it's essential to consider how debt affects a company's financial health.
Equity value is the remaining value after subtracting debt from firm value. In this case, Amazon's equity value is 1.6 trillion USD. This is the value that shareholders would receive if the company were to liquidate its assets.
Amazon's equity value is divided among its 10.7 billion shares outstanding. This means that each share represents a small portion of the company's overall value.
The DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) value of Amazon is 150.16 USD per share. This is a critical metric in financial modeling, as it represents the present value of a company's future cash flows.
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Financial Modeling
Financial Modeling is a powerful tool that helps investors and analysts estimate the value of a company.
The DCF Value, or Discounted Cash Flow Value, is a key component of financial modeling, and it estimates the present value of a company's future cash flows.
For example, the estimated DCF Value of one Amazon stock is $150.16 USD, which is 32% lower than its current market price of $221.78 USD.
A well-structured DCF model takes into account various factors, such as revenue growth, margin, and discount rate, to arrive at a valuation.
You can already have a valuation model for Amazon.com Inc. using a pre-existing DCF model.
Sensitivity analysis is a crucial step in financial modeling that assesses how changes in key factors affect a stock's DCF value.
By visualizing various scenarios, you can understand potential valuation shifts and make more informed risk assessments and strategic decisions.
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Investment Targets
Wall Street analysts have set an average 1-year price target for AMZN at 269.33 USD.
This target is based on a low forecast of 208.06 USD and a high forecast of 321.3 USD.
The wide range of forecasts highlights the uncertainty surrounding Amazon's future performance, but it also presents an opportunity for investors to consider the potential upside.
Wall St Targets
The average 1-year price target for Amazon.com Inc is 269.33 USD.
Wall Street analysts have set a wide range of price targets for Amazon, with a low forecast of 208.06 USD and a high forecast of 321.3 USD.
These targets give investors a general idea of where the market expects Amazon's stock to be in the coming year.
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Amazon Inc Targets Summary
Amazon.com Inc has an average 1-year price target of $269.33 USD, according to Wall Street analysts.
The low forecast is $208.06 USD and the high forecast is $321.30 USD.
This suggests a significant range of possible future prices for Amazon's stock.
Here's a summary of the price targets:
These targets are based on the opinions of Wall Street analysts and should be considered when making investment decisions.
Intrinsic Value Calculation
The intrinsic value of Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) is a crucial concept to understand when evaluating the company's stock price. The intrinsic value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values, which in the Base Case scenario is $170.88 USD.
To calculate the intrinsic value, we need to consider the company's financial performance and future prospects. Amazon's DCF analysis reveals a significant difference between its current market price and its estimated intrinsic value. The market price is $221.78 USD, while the intrinsic value is $170.88 USD, indicating that Amazon is overvalued by 23%.
One way to calculate the intrinsic value is by using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method. This involves forecasting the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The DCF analysis in the article shows that the total present value of Amazon's forecasted cash flows is $190.62 billion.
Here's a breakdown of the key inputs used in the DCF analysis:
- Discount Rate: 9%
- Terminal Growth Rate: 4%
- WACC: 9%
The forecasted free cash flows (FCFs) for Amazon are as follows:
The total present value of the FCFs is $190.62 billion. The terminal value is calculated using the formula (FCF_2029 × (1 + g)) / (r – g), which yields a terminal value of $1,248.00 billion.
The enterprise value is calculated by adding the present value of the FCFs and the present value of the terminal value, resulting in an enterprise value of $1,001.65 billion. The net debt is calculated by subtracting the total cash from the total debt, which yields a net debt of $29.70 billion.
The equity value is calculated by subtracting the net debt from the enterprise value, resulting in an equity value of $971.95 billion. Finally, the per-share DCF value is calculated by dividing the equity value by the number of shares outstanding, which yields a per-share value of $90.35.
In conclusion, the intrinsic value of Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) is estimated to be $90.35 per share, which is significantly lower than the current market price of $221.78 USD, indicating that the company is overvalued by 23%.
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News
Amazon's current market price is 221.78 USD, which is a significant factor in determining its intrinsic value.
The company's overvaluation is quite notable, with a 23% difference from its current market price.
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