
The recent halving of the block reward to 6.25 bitcoins has sparked a lot of debate about the future of cryptocurrency.
As we discussed earlier, the block reward halving is a built-in mechanism designed to slow down the rate at which new bitcoins are mined.
This is expected to have a positive impact on the overall health of the network, reducing the risk of inflation and increasing the value of each individual bitcoin.
However, some experts are concerned that the reduced block reward may lead to a decrease in mining activity, which could have unintended consequences for the network's security and decentralization.
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Bitcoin Halving
The Bitcoin halving is a crucial aspect of the cryptocurrency's protocol, and it's essential to understand how it works. The halving process involves reducing the mining reward for new Bitcoin blocks, which in turn increases the asset's scarcity.
The first halving took place in November 2012, reducing the mining reward from 50 bitcoins to 25 bitcoins. The second halving occurred in July 2016, cutting the reward in half again to 12.5 bitcoins.
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The most recent halving happened in May 2020, reducing the reward from 12.5 bitcoins to 6.25 bitcoins, which is the current mining reward. This reduction in reward is a deliberate design choice to maintain a predictable supply of bitcoins and prevent inflation.
Approximately 210,000 blocks must be mined before each halving occurs, which is roughly every four years. The upcoming halving, scheduled for April 19, 2024, will further reduce the reward to 3.125 bitcoins per block.
Currently, around 19.65 million bitcoins, or 93.6% of the total eventual Bitcoin supply, have been mined and are already in circulation. This leaves a small fraction, estimated at around 1.35 million bitcoins (6.4%), to be mined through future rewards over the next 116 years.
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Bitcoin Evolution and Supply
Bitcoin has undergone significant changes since its inception, with the USD price of BTC climbing dramatically over the years.
The first 'halving' took place in 2012, reducing the number of bitcoins generated per block from 50 to 25.
By the end of 2013, one Bitcoin had risen to $200, a significant increase in value.
The second halving in 2016 cut the number of bitcoins per block in half again, to 12.5.
Four years later, in 2020, the number of bitcoins per block was reduced to 6.25, the current rate.
Bitcoin's limited supply is a unique feature that sets it apart from traditional fiat currencies.
Only 21 million bitcoins will ever exist, enforced by the Bitcoin protocol.
The limited supply is achieved through a combination of mining and the Bitcoin halving process.
The first notable transaction with bitcoins was buying two pizzas for 10,000 bitcoins in 2010.
Mining a block in 2009 generated 50 bitcoins, but the value was less than notable at the time.
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Miner Incentives
The halving of the block reward has led to concerns about miner incentives, but history shows that miners have consistently adapted to changes in the reward structure.
After the first halving in November 2012, the Bitcoin hash rate experienced a 30% decline, but it rebounded swiftly within a few months.
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The second halving in July 2016 saw a 15% decrease in the Bitcoin hash rate, which again bounced back within a few months.
A temporary drop of about 20% in the Bitcoin hash rate occurred after the third halving in May 2020, but recovery was even faster than in previous halving events.
The built-in Difficulty Adjustment Algorithm helps regulate the mining process, making it harder to hit the bullseye as the price of Bitcoin goes up, and easier as it goes down.
The algorithm ensures that the mining process remains competitive and that the network remains secure.
The actual number of bitcoins in circulation is currently lower than the total supply of 21 million, due to lost bitcoins and private keys.
A reduction in the number of bitcoin miners could lead to fewer bitcoins entering the market, exerting upward pressure on the price of Bitcoin.
However, the current price of Bitcoin may already reflect the understanding of the halving, making it difficult to predict the impact on pricing and volatility.
The halving has always led to a reduction in the rate of bitcoin creation, which some argue will lead to a bullish market and an increase in the price of Bitcoin.
Here are some key statistics about the halving:
- First halving: November 2012, 30% decline in hash rate
- Second halving: July 2016, 15% decline in hash rate
- Third halving: May 2020, 20% decline in hash rate
- Current block reward: 6.25 bitcoins
- Total supply of bitcoins: 21 million
- Estimated lost bitcoins: 4 million
Understanding the Halvening
The halvening is a pivotal moment in the evolution of Bitcoin, occurring every four years when the reward for mining new blocks is cut in half. This process is designed to maintain a predictable supply of bitcoins and prevent inflation.
The first halving took place in November 2012, reducing the mining reward from 50 bitcoins to 25 bitcoins. The second halving occurred in July 2016, reducing the reward from 25 bitcoins to 12.5 bitcoins.
The most recent halving took place in May 2020, reducing the reward from 12.5 bitcoins to 6.25 bitcoins. This halving was the third to occur, and it will be interesting to see how miners respond to the reduced reward.
Approximately 19.65 million bitcoins, accounting for 93.6% of the total eventual Bitcoin supply, have been mined and are already in circulation. This leaves a small fraction, estimated at around 1.35 million bitcoins (6.4%), to be mined through future rewards over the next 116 years.
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The halvening process is an essential part of the Bitcoin protocol, as it helps to maintain a predictable supply of bitcoins and prevent inflation. By reducing the mining reward over time, the rate at which new bitcoins are added to the network slows down, eventually reaching zero once the total supply of 21 million bitcoins is reached.
The upcoming halving, slated for April 19, 2024, will diminish the reward once more to 3.125 bitcoins per block. This will be the fourth halving to occur, and it will be fascinating to see how the market responds.
The halvening can have a significant impact on the Bitcoin market, including reducing the number of miners and the amount of newly mined bitcoins entering the market.
The Truth and Implications
The halving of Bitcoin's supply has a profound impact on its future value. It's a supply shock that's hard to predict, especially since 95-99% of people worldwide are not in Bitcoin markets yet.

Many people who currently own Bitcoin don't even know about the halving. Google trends show that interest in the halving is on the rise, but it's still a relatively unknown concept.
The halving also brings higher price expectations among big industry players and institutions. They're expecting even higher returns from Bitcoin.
Pseudonymous Bitcoin analyst Plan B says that markets sometimes misprice risk. He believes that Bitcoin's risk-to-reward ratio is "off the charts" and that the market has overestimated the risks.
Frequently Asked Questions
How long does it take to mine 6.25 Bitcoin?
Mining 6.25 Bitcoin takes approximately 10 minutes, but the reward is only guaranteed to the first miner to successfully validate a new block.
Sources
- https://www.blockchain-council.org/cryptocurrency/how-many-bitcoins-are-left/
- https://education.compassmining.io/education/north-american-bitcoin-miners-gearing-up-for-the-next-halving-part-1-of-2/
- https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/bitcoins-mining-reward-is-about-to-be-cut-in-half-what-investors-should-know-about-the-halvening/
- https://theconversation.com/bitcoin-halving-qanda-what-its-all-about-and-what-it-means-for-the-cryptocurrency-138570
- https://www.swanbitcoin.com/industry/bitcoin-halving/
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